Despite exit polls predicting a clear majority for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar’s 243-seat election, a record overall voter turnout of 66.91%—a surge of 9.62 percentage points compared to the 2020 Assembly elections (57.29%)—suggests a potential risk for the incumbent government. Historical data indicates that an increase of over five percentage points in turnout has led to a change in power three times (in 1967, 1980, and 1990). The election also saw higher participation from women (71.6%) than men (62.8%). The highest turnout in the second phase was in Pranpur (81.02%), and the lowest was in Kumhrar (39.57%).
| Category | Turnout Percentage | Notes |
| Overall Turnout (2025) | 66.91% | A record in Bihar’s electoral history. |
| Increase from 2020 | +9.62 percentage points | Compared to 57.29% in 2020. |
| Women’s Turnout | 71.6% | Higher than men’s turnout. |
| Men’s Turnout | 62.8% | Lower than women’s turnout. |
| Highest Phase 2 Constituency | Pranpur (Katihar): 81.02% | Bumper turnout observed here. |
| Lowest Phase 2 Constituency | Kumhrar (Patna): 39.57% | Significantly bucked the high turnout trend. |
Historical Precedent
Historical data shows that a surge of over five percentage points in voter turnout has preceded a change in the ruling party:
- 1967: Turnout increased by 7.0% (from 44.5% to 51.5%); Congress government fell.
- 1980: Turnout increased by 6.8% (from 50.5% to 57.3%); Change in power occurred.
- 1990: Turnout increased by 5.7% (from 56.3% to 62.0%); Congress was ousted by Janata Dal.
Given the 9.62 percentage point increase in the current election, the historic trend suggests the outcome might diverge from exit poll predictions.
