An interim trade agreement between India and the United States is expected to be finalized within the next 48 hours, with negotiations underway in Washington, according to sources cited by indian media.
Key Highlights:
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Deadline Pressure:
The deal aims to avoid the reinstatement of 26% reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods, paused temporarily until July 9. -
Sticky Issues:
The talks have stalled over US demands for access to India’s genetically modified (GM) crops, agriculture, and dairy sectors — red lines for New Delhi due to food safety and rural livelihood concerns. -
What’s Likely Excluded:
Sources confirm that agriculture and dairy will likely be kept outside the deal. -
India’s Key Ask:
India is demanding tariff cuts on labour-intensive sectors like footwear, garments, and leather, crucial for employment and exports.
“Without broader tariff cuts, especially on job-creating exports, the $500 billion bilateral trade goal by 2030 is unrealistic,” say Indian negotiators.
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Trade Body View:
FIEO CEO Ajay Sahai told NDTV,“Indian exports to the US could double in three years post-deal.”
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US Position:
President Donald Trump recently stated:“India will soon strike a deal… with much less tariffs, allowing both countries to compete.”
Tariff Risk:
If no agreement is reached, the suspended 26% US tariffs — imposed during the Trump era — will automatically resume after July 9.
Still, some Indian officials argue that India’s export competitiveness won’t be severely impacted, as 26% tariffs are manageable compared to other global players.
🇮🇳 Strategic Implications:
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India remains firm on protecting its farmers and dairy sector from foreign competition.
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The deal focuses instead on reciprocal tariff reductions on industrial and consumer goods.
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A successful agreement may revive trust and pave the way for a full-scale Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) later this year.
Stay tuned — the next 48 hours could shape the next decade of India-US trade relations.
